Matthew Berry, ESPN Senior WriterDec 30, 2021, 07:36 AM
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- •Senior Fantasy analyst for ESPN
•Member, FSWA and FSTA Halls of Fame
•Best-selling author of "Fantasy Life"
The second-to-last week of the season means a few things. Fantasy football championship week for one. It usually means we're on the other side of Christmas while the end of the calendar year approaches, (not to mention my birthday, Dec. 29!) and, of course, this year it means it's time for my way, way, way too early 2022 fantasy football ranks (aka a cheap ploy to get you to click on the column even if you've been eliminated).
Understand this is being done before the season ends, let alone free agency, where you can expect to see, among other things, many big-name quarterbacks change teams. Coaches will be fired and hired and bring different offensive philosophies with them. Players will lose and gain fantasy value throughout the offseason based on what their team does (or doesn't do) at the coaching position, QB, free agency, the draft and any number of unpredictable things. Remember when Andrew Luck retired in the middle of August? Even as we go through the next two weeks and the playoffs, things can change. ACL tears can happen anytime, including the playoffs.
So what I did here was rank as if nothing will change between now and the start of the 2022 NFL season. I ranked as if Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers and Davante Adams is still his No. 1 receiver. Otherwise, there's just too much uncertainty. In fact, the only thing that is certain is that these rankings will change a million times before now and late August 2022.
My rankings will be posted again after the season and be constantly updated as news warrants, so definitely keep checking in, especially the day after major news breaks. Enough caveats for you?
OK, good. Then here we go. These ranks were done with ESPN standard leagues in mind. That is to say, 10-team leagues with PPR scoring and starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex.
Matthew Berry's Way, Way, Way Too Early 2022 Top 50
1. Jonathan Taylor (RB1)
2. Cooper Kupp (WR1)
3. Davante Adams (WR2)
4. Derrick Henry (RB2)
5. Dalvin Cook (RB3)
6. Austin Ekeler (RB4)
7. Christian McCaffrey (RB5)
8. Alvin Kamara (RB6)
9. Joe Mixon (RB7)
10. Najee Harris (RB8)
11. Ezekiel Elliott (RB9)
12. Justin Jefferson (WR3)
13. Tyreek Hill (WR4)
14. Stefon Diggs (WR5)
15. Deebo Samuel (WR6)
16. Ja'Marr Chase (WR7)
17. A.J. Brown (WR8)
18. D'Andre Swift (RB10)
19. Nick Chubb (RB11)
20. Mark Andrews (TE1)
21. Travis Kelce (TE2)
22. CeeDee Lamb (WR9)
23. Jaylen Waddle (WR10)
24. Chris Godwin (WR11)
25. Diontae Johnson (WR12)
26. George Kittle (TE3)
27. Mike Evans (WR13)
28. Keenan Allen (WR14)
29. Calvin Ridley (WR15)
30. Darren Waller (TE4)
31. Antonio Gibson (RB12)
32. David Montgomery (RB13)
33. Tee Higgins (WR16)
34. Aaron Jones (RB14)
35. Leonard Fournette (RB15)
36. Elijah Mitchell (RB16)
37. DK Metcalf (WR17)
38. Tyler Lockett (WR18)
39. Marquise Brown (WR19)
40. Josh Allen (QB1)
41. DJ Moore (WR20)
42. Antonio Brown (WR21)
43. Terry McLaurin (WR22)
44. Saquon Barkley (RB17)
45. DeAndre Hopkins (WR23)
46. Josh Jacobs (RB18)
47. Hunter Renfrow (WR24)
48. Justin Herbert (QB2)
49. Patrick Mahomes (QB3)
50. Kyler Murray (QB4)
There you have it. What do you agree on, and what did I get wrong? Let me hear it.
In the meantime, this is my last column of the year. I can't thank you enough for reading me every week, giving me feedback, showing love, support and, yes, sometimes anger when I've steered you wrong. I so appreciate you sticking with me and I say this every year, but it rings true this year more than ever. Thank you for coming on this journey with me. Good luck, stay safe and hug 'em tight.
Thank you so much to everyone who contributed to the column this year. Damian Dabrowski (the original Stat-a-pillar from The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry on ESPN+), Kevin Pulsifer (the current Stat-a-pillar from The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry on ESPN+) and "Thirsty" Kyle Soppe from the Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast. Thanks to one of the producers of The Fantasy Show with Matthew Berry on ESPN+, DJ Gallo, for some opening story suggestions, thanks to Pierre Becquey and "Not cool!" Keith Lipscomb for editing this monstrosity every week and of course, once again, thanks to you for being here. Writing to myself isn't a lot of fun. You mean the world to me, and I hope you know that.
For the last time this season, let's get to it.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 17
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (vs. Vikings)
Aaron Rodgers is the top-scoring player in fantasy on a per-game basis since Week 11, averaging 26.6 PPG. Meanwhile, the Vikings' defense has allowed 28 or more points in five of its past six games. And now it gets Rodgers, who absolutely destroys the Vikings even when they're playing well. Get this: in Rodgers' last three games against Minnesota, he has 1,040 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he is averaging 28.9 fantasy points per game. Is it against NFL rules for one man to own two teams, the Bears and the Vikings, and to quarterback a third team? All in the same division? Seems like a conflict of interest to me. Top-two play this week.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (at Ravens)
Baltimore's struggles this season are more than Lamar Jackson, injuries and the god of two-point conversions hating them. Maybe even worse than all of that is the fact that the Baltimore defense is, well ... not so Raven. Don't look at me like that. You heard me. Seven times, a quarterback has scored 21.5 fantasy points or more against the Ravens this season, and five of those games came in Baltimore. Baltimore's pass defense this season has allowed the most passing yards and the second-most per attempt, and it's tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed. A defense with that kind of track record sets up very well for Matthew Stafford who, prior to last week when I stupidly put him on the Love list, was averaging 21.2 PPG in his previous four games. Apologies for last week but I'm back on him again this week as a top-five play.
Others receiving votes: Joe Burrow leads all quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt this season and averages 21.5 PPG in games in which he has more than 30 pass attempts. Burrow will likely put the ball in the air frequently against the Chiefs in a game that has the second-highest over/under in Week 17. ... Russell Wilson still isn't his usual self, but he did have two deep touchdown passes last week and now faces a Lions defense that allows the most air yards per pass attempt and the second-most yards per completion. ... Three quarterbacks this season have had a game with 11 or more designed runs: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance. That's it. That's the list. And Lance did it in his lone start of the season, back in Week 5 against the Cardinals. Now for the reason I tell you this: Quarterbacks with 10-plus rushes in a game this season are averaging 23.7 PPG. There's risk here, but if you are QB-desperate, you could likely do much worse than Lance.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 17
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Cowboys)
Putting a talent like Kyler Murray on the Hate list can result in me looking very stupid. I get that. But, hey, I do stuff every day that makes me look stupid. You can't scare me away by expecting intelligence! But here's my reasoning for hating Murray this week: This game is a matchup of a slumping quarterback facing a red-hot pass defense. In his two games without DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal, Murray completed less than 60% of his passes. He also has just two touchdown passes on 133 attempts in his past three games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys yield the third-lowest completion rate, give up touchdown passes at the seventh-lowest rate and, since Week 4, have allowed only three quarterbacks to score 16 or more fantasy points against them. All of that is why Murray is outside my top 10 in Week 17.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (at Packers)
I know Vikings fans don't need to be reminded of this, and I feel like I'm tiptoeing up to the edge of online bullying just by saying it but ... Kirk Cousins is not Aaron Rodgers. While Rodgers has lit up the Vikings, Cousins has not returned the favor to the Packers. In fact, in Cousins' last two games against Green Bay, he has fewer than 10.5 fantasy points in both. Not good! Now for something even worse: This Packers-Vikings game is on Sunday night in prime time, and Cousins struggles with the bright lights even more than Gizmo in "Gremlins." (There's a current reference for you, kids!) In Cousins' past 10 prime-time games, he's averaging 13.5 fantasy points and he has put up 250 yards in just three of them. With no Adam Thielen once again in this one -- the Vikings put him on the IR on Wednesday -- Cousins is merely a risky QB2.
Running Backs I Love in Week 17
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (at Steelers)
Everyone is ripping Baker Mayfield's accuracy and production, but I'm tired of the negativity. Mayfield is very accurate and extremely productive when he accepts the snap, turns around and immediately places the ball into Nick Chubb's arms. If Mayfield does that a lot on Sunday, Chubb -- and potentially the Browns, too -- will have a big day. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh has allowed a league-high 36.3 PPG to running backs, along with a league-high 180.4 rushing yards per game. Chubb has at least 20 touches in four of the past five games and I expect another heavy workload on Sunday. That's why Chubb is my RB5 this week. But again, I am not piling on Mayfield here. The Browns should allow him to let it rip sometimes, too. And by let it rip, I mean to have Mayfield pitch the ball to Chubb on a few sweeps.
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Jets)
Uncle Lenny didn't show up for the holidays this year, but Uncle Ronny did stop by and took a large helping of 22 touches in his place. That kind of workload sets up for a big fantasy day against a Jets defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season and the fourth-most rushing yards. Teams facing the Jets also average a league-high 31.4 rushes per game. The Bucs are 13-point favorites in this one, which means they should lean on the run game late to run the clock. It feels super weird to write this but -- welcome to 2021 -- Ronald Jones is a top-10 running back for me in Week 17.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (vs. Falcons)
The Bills have looked a lot better since their Monday night debacle against the Patriots in Week 13 and a lot of that has to do with Devin Singletary. In the three games since that loss, Singletary has 75-plus scrimmage yards and at least 14 fantasy points in each. He has also handled 85% of Buffalo's running back touches over that stretch, including five-plus receptions in two of those games. This week he gets a Falcons defense that has allowed the eighth-most receptions to running backs. Singletary is a top-15 play for me this week.
Others receiving votes: Assuming Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn't suit up in Week 17, Darrel Williams deserves starting consideration. Williams put up 17.8 PPG in the five games CEH missed earlier this season, averaging 18.6 touches and 94 scrimmage yards. ... Damien Harris has a rushing touchdown in eight of his past nine games, while the Jaguars are bottom-four in rushing TDs allowed this season. And now the Jaguars have to face that Patriots rushing attack with a defense that has five of its starting front seven on the COVID-19 list. ... In a lost Seahawks season, they might have finally found something in Rashaad Penny. Penny has 130-plus rushing yards in two of his past three games and could put up another big game on Sunday against a Lions defense that is bottom-six in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 17
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (at Bears)
Barkley was on my preseason Hate list, and he's in my final Hate list of the season. I'm nothing if not consistent. In fact, the only person more consistent than me this season is Barkley consistently putting up awful numbers. Only once this season has he had more than 57 rushing yards. Once! It's Week 17! Barkley also has fewer than 12 fantasy points in five of his past seven games, along with just one red zone carry over that entire span. One red zone carry! One! In seven games! I'm using a lot of exclamation points here because it's the only way to capture just how bad he's been! And also because I want to stress that I told you! I told you! TOLD YOU! If you have Barkley on your roster, you have only yourself to blame!
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (at Colts)
Thanks to Jonathan Taylor being Jonathan Taylor, the Colts play at the second-slowest pace in the NFL this season. He churns up a ton of yards -- and clock. But Taylor's production leaves little opportunity for opposing running backs to get touches. The Colts have allowed fewer than 75 rushing yards to running backs in six of their past eight games and -- over the past four weeks -- Indianapolis is allowing just 3.2 yards per carry to backs. Considering Jacobs averages just 13.1 PPG this season when seeing fewer than 20 touches, and that he has had only three games all season with more than 53 rushing yards, he's outside my top 20 at the position this week.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (at Bills)
Patterson has fewer than 20 rushing yards in each of his past two games and, over his past three games, has five receiving yards. Total. Yikes. And over the past four weeks, Patterson is RB33, averaging just 9.8 PPG. He's merely a flex play this week, and while I desperately don't want it to be this way, it seems Patterson might be slowly turning back into a fantasy pumpkin. (By the way, that's a Cinderella reference. And "Cinderella" is available to stream on Disney+. I'm nothing if not a company man.)
Pass-Catchers I Love in Week 17
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (at Ravens)
"Wow, thanks a lot, Berry. I should start Cooper Kupp in fantasy this week? You're so helpful!"
A) Yes, you should start him in fantasy.
B) You don't need to be so snarky, yeesh. It's the holidays!
And C) Because this is the last column of the year I just wanted to use this space to celebrate the historic season put up by my little Cooper Kupp, who, if you've followed me any amount of time, you know is one of my favorite players in the NFL. Typically drafted between WR Nos. 15 and 20 this preseason, Kupp has only one game all season with fewer than 16.2 fantasy points. One. That's truly remarkable because, get this: Only 11 wide receivers are averaging 16.2 PPG this season. (Head exploding emoji.) With two games to play, here's the pace Kupp is on:
149 receptions (tied for most in NFL history)
1,965 receiving yards (most in NFL history)
443.5 fantasy points (would be the most points ever scored by a wide receiver)
26.09 PPG (would be the most ever averaged by a wide receiver in a season playing 16 or more games)
So here's to my little Cooper Kupp. The clear Fantasy MVP of 2021, and the fantasy MVP of my heart (2017- ... ).
Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Jets)
One thing Brown showed us last week: When he is on the field, he's every bit the superstar he has always been. People questioned putting him on the Love list last week in his first game since Week 6, but I did it and well, it certainly worked out. On a points-per-game basis, Antonio Brown is WR5 this season (19.2). He has posted 20-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games, including in each of his past three, and in his return last week got a voracious 48% target share. No Chris Godwin or (likely) Mike Evans in this one means Brown is once again a top-eight wide receiver for me in Week 17.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Lions)
Since Russell Wilson returned, Lockett leads all players in aDOT and has the second-most deep targets over that stretch. It's likely Lockett and Wilson connect deep down the field a few times this week against a Lions defense that has allowed the most receptions and yards on deep passes this season, as well as the highest completion rate on deep balls.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (at Seahawks)
Over the past four weeks, St. Brown is averaging 22.4 PPG on a 33.6 target share, and the only player with more catches than St. Brown over the stretch is Cooper Kupp. I mean, how can you not love that? I got to work Kupp into the column again! Outstanding! But also: The St. Brown stuff is good, too, right? And St. Brown's run of high-level production should continue this week against a Seattle defense allowing the fourth-most yards per pass attempt over the past four weeks.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (at Football Team)
Goedert has a 25% target share over the past four weeks. Only George Kittle and Mark Andrews rank higher among tight ends over that stretch. And let me tell you: It's good to be included with George Kittle and Mark Andrews in positive fantasy tight end stats. (That's what is called "analysis.") Now Goedert gets a WFT defense that allows the fourth-most yards per reception to tight ends, and one he lit up for seven receptions and 135 yards on nine targets in Week 15. Look for Goedert to go off this week in a game that officially eliminates my WFT from the playoff race. (That's not called "analysis," that's called "what I've come to expect being a Washington fan for the past 30 years.")
Others receiving votes: Odell Beckham Jr. has a touchdown in four of his past five games and got three end zone targets last week. He should get more opportunities this week against a Ravens team that has allowed the second-most yards on deep passes. ... Is Josh Palmer a thing? I'm here to tell you that Josh Palmer is indeed a thing, especially if Mike Williams and/or Jalen Guyton miss this game. Palmer has 15-plus fantasy points while scoring a touchdown in both of his starts this season. ... The Vikings allow deep touchdown passes at the fourth-highest rate. Marquez Valdes-Scantling went for 4-123-1 versus the Vikings in Week 11. ... The Ravens allow the fifth-most PPG to opposing tight ends and now will face Tyler Higbee, who has at least five targets in seven of his past eight games. ... Detroit has the second-worst red zone defense this season, which means Gerald Everett has a chance to get in the end zone this week. Everett has put up double-digit fantasy points in four of his past five games and has 60-plus receiving yards in each of the past two weeks.
Pass-Catchers I Hate in Week 17
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (vs. Eagles)
Perhaps we were too vague with the Scary Terry nickname. The idea was that he was supposed to scare opposing teams. Instead, he's horrifying his fantasy managers. McLaurin has fewer than 10 fantasy points in five straight games, including zero end zone targets over that stretch. Since Week 8, he has just one game with more than 60 receiving yards. And now he gets an Eagles team that allows the second-fewest PPG to wide receivers, and he is expected to draw the Darius Slay shadow. Not good! So that's why for 2022, I'm changing McLaurin's nickname to "Scary (To Those He Plays Against, Not Those Who Drafted Him, Just To Be Clear) Terry McLaurin." It doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, but hopefully it will better let him know what we're going for and expecting from a fantasy standpoint.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders (at Colts)
So Renfrow isn't exactly Cooper Kupp 2 just yet. (I got my little Cooper Kupp in the column again!) Renfrow has back-to-back games with three catches and has 40 or fewer yards in both of those games. This week he faces a tough matchup versus Kenny Moore II and a Colts defense that ranks among the top 10 in fewest catches allowed to the slot this season. Renfrow is WR12 on the season, but he's just outside my top 25 for Week 17.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (at Titans)
Hey, is this Mike on? Get it? It's a joke pretending Mike Gesicki is a microphone that is not functioning on account of him not doing much in fantasy of late (hey, it's the last Love-Hate column of the season. You're getting barrel scrapings in the joke department.) Anyway ... while the Dolphins have turned their season around, Gesicki hasn't exactly been a huge part of it on the stat sheet. Without a touchdown since Week 7, Gesicki also has fewer than 55 yards in eight straight games. Chances are a breakout game doesn't come this week against a Tennessee team that is among the top five in both least fantasy points allowed to tight ends this season and fewest yards allowed to the position.
